Predictions are great... Predictions are poor in a meaningless context... Amidst of all the greatness and brilliant predictions, it is important to note that 2 billion people currently lack access to clean water. It is estimated that 700 million people go to bed hungry each night. In what way is this relevant to "the GDP" in a world where technology is deflating economies due to AI? There has been no discussion of AGI, privacy, information security, misinformation, shortcuts in development to "win" the rat race to supremacy, or the effects on labor and contextual robots. The recall "We are still early" => to conclude that we are losing control over AI because we are so short-sighted with premordial brains on steroids (meaning instinctive, emotional, short-termistic thinking...).
This is great, thanks for sharing. I believe externalities like geopolitics will play a role on how these are executed though; as more nations and companies are erecting barriers and new alliances are being formed: building companies across jurisdictions and various ecosystems may prove to be challenging
Interesting synthesis of where a16z sees leverage moving. The shift from systems of record to systems of execution is probably the most underappreciated trend here. Most entreprise buyers still think in terms of data storage when the actual value is shifting to coordinated action. I've watched this transition play out in supply chain software where the 'source of truth' becomes irrelevant once agents start executing decisions in paralell without waiting for human approval cycles.
Strong synthesis. One gap stands out, though: nearly every one of these ideas assumes AI will act—often autonomously, collaboratively, and at scale—without naming the fixed reference that governs judgment under pressure. Execution layers, agent orchestration, and prompt-free systems don’t fail because they can’t act; they fail when optimization replaces judgment. That’s where a stable reference layer matters. Frameworks like the Faust Baseline aren’t about features or control—they exist to hold alignment steady so adaptation doesn’t quietly turn into drift. Architecture is necessary, but judgment infrastructure is still largely unnamed.
This is interesting maybe more because it shows the blindspots of the mega-investors who focus on tech. A big underlying assumption here is that the momentum behind LLM/GenAI driven startups continues and the massive amounts of funding don't dry up.
Already funding for AI is increasingly consolidated in a smaller number of model companies and a startup today building a prompt-free system or a system-without-record, likely won't be able to get funding.
The other thing that strikes me about these "predictions" is that they are pretty boring repacking of existing narratives with different buzz words. A "prompt-free" system is just an automated system. Factories already operate "prompt-free".
Lots of systems operate above the system of record - that's called UX. Tech standards and tools have always been seen as a solution to "talent shortage" but especially in cybersecurity that is laughable to even suggest. Whatever tools the cybersecurity companies will deploy will be quickly matched. And we are a long way from having any system that is self-aware enough that it can fight the most advanced cyber issues on its own.
Maybe this is a sign of peak hype or just another step on the way up the ladder.
Predictions are great... Predictions are poor in a meaningless context... Amidst of all the greatness and brilliant predictions, it is important to note that 2 billion people currently lack access to clean water. It is estimated that 700 million people go to bed hungry each night. In what way is this relevant to "the GDP" in a world where technology is deflating economies due to AI? There has been no discussion of AGI, privacy, information security, misinformation, shortcuts in development to "win" the rat race to supremacy, or the effects on labor and contextual robots. The recall "We are still early" => to conclude that we are losing control over AI because we are so short-sighted with premordial brains on steroids (meaning instinctive, emotional, short-termistic thinking...).
This is great, thanks for sharing. I believe externalities like geopolitics will play a role on how these are executed though; as more nations and companies are erecting barriers and new alliances are being formed: building companies across jurisdictions and various ecosystems may prove to be challenging
Interesting synthesis of where a16z sees leverage moving. The shift from systems of record to systems of execution is probably the most underappreciated trend here. Most entreprise buyers still think in terms of data storage when the actual value is shifting to coordinated action. I've watched this transition play out in supply chain software where the 'source of truth' becomes irrelevant once agents start executing decisions in paralell without waiting for human approval cycles.
Strong synthesis. One gap stands out, though: nearly every one of these ideas assumes AI will act—often autonomously, collaboratively, and at scale—without naming the fixed reference that governs judgment under pressure. Execution layers, agent orchestration, and prompt-free systems don’t fail because they can’t act; they fail when optimization replaces judgment. That’s where a stable reference layer matters. Frameworks like the Faust Baseline aren’t about features or control—they exist to hold alignment steady so adaptation doesn’t quietly turn into drift. Architecture is necessary, but judgment infrastructure is still largely unnamed.
This is interesting maybe more because it shows the blindspots of the mega-investors who focus on tech. A big underlying assumption here is that the momentum behind LLM/GenAI driven startups continues and the massive amounts of funding don't dry up.
Already funding for AI is increasingly consolidated in a smaller number of model companies and a startup today building a prompt-free system or a system-without-record, likely won't be able to get funding.
The other thing that strikes me about these "predictions" is that they are pretty boring repacking of existing narratives with different buzz words. A "prompt-free" system is just an automated system. Factories already operate "prompt-free".
Lots of systems operate above the system of record - that's called UX. Tech standards and tools have always been seen as a solution to "talent shortage" but especially in cybersecurity that is laughable to even suggest. Whatever tools the cybersecurity companies will deploy will be quickly matched. And we are a long way from having any system that is self-aware enough that it can fight the most advanced cyber issues on its own.
Maybe this is a sign of peak hype or just another step on the way up the ladder.
Great insights to frame my investor pitch.
And happy to meet 6 of 15 playbook ideas.